“China Exports to U.S. Fall 33% in August as Trade Growth Slows to 6-Month Low”

U.S. Trade Weakness Pulls Down Export Growth

China’s exports to the United States fell sharply by 33% in August, according to the latest customs data. Despite this slump, the U.S. still remains China’s largest export market on a single-country basis.

Meanwhile, China’s overall exports grew 4.4% year-on-year in August, the slowest pace in six months, missing forecasts of a 5% rise.

Imports also disappointed, climbing just 1.3%, below Reuters’ estimate of 3% growth, signaling ongoing weak domestic demand and challenges in China’s real estate and labor markets.

Why Growth Slowed in August

Economists point to several reasons for the slowdown:

• High base effect from strong exports last year.

• U.S. tariffs and scrutiny on transshipments, making it harder to reroute goods through third countries.

• The fading impact of the earlier U.S.-China trade truce.

According to Capital Economics, exports showed little change on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting the weaker headline numbers are largely due to last year’s unusually high figures.

Shift Toward New Markets

With U.S. demand weakening, Chinese exporters are expanding to alternative markets such as:

• European Union (EU) → exports up 10.4%

• ASEAN nations → exports up 22.5%

• Africa → exports up 26%

• Latin America → exports up nearly 6%

Between January and August 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. fell 15.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Africa surged by double digits.

Tariff Battles and Trade Talks

The U.S. currently maintains tariffs of around 55% on Chinese goods, while Beijing imposes about 30% duties on U.S. imports. Recent bilateral talks showed little progress, and President Donald Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on Chinese products if Beijing fails to deliver more rare-earth exports.

China’s exports of rare earths did rise 22.6% in August, reaching nearly 5,800 metric tons.

Domestic Demand Still Weak

China’s domestic economy remains sluggish:

• Consumer trade-in programs for cars and appliances are being paused due to lack of funds.

• Deflationary pressures continue, with producer prices down 2.9% year-on-year in August.

• CPI inflation also fell 0.2%, staying in negative territory.

Analysts expect the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may announce a rate cut of 10–20 basis points to stimulate demand when new economic data—covering retail sales, industrial output, investment, and unemployment—arrives next week.

Outlook

While China diversifies exports toward other regions, the U.S. remains its most critical trade partner, absorbing $283 billion worth of Chinese goods this year through August. However, with weak domestic demand, global trade tensions, and deflationary risks, economists warn China’s export momentum could face more challenges in the coming months.